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US Military Aid to Ukraine Will Only End With 'Real Political Revolution' in America, Analyst Warns_我的网站

落日余晖

A | IT时报记者郝俊慧夏日炎炎，比天气更热的是AI。 This Friday, Washington unveiled yet another $820 million package of security support for Ukraine, which includes two cutting-edge surface-to-air missile systems and four additional counter-artillery radars.,The Biden administration indicated the new package included extra ammo for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) that were already given to Ukraine, noting US authorities almost weekly coordinate more and more new deliveries of arms and finances to Kiev counterparts amid pledges to give even more.,All this takes place against the backdrop of unprecedented in recent decades domestic inflation and an economic crisis that threatens to plounge the US into a recession comparable to the "Great Recession" of 2008.,US Treasury’s Yellen Says Inflation Causes ‘Global, Not Local,’ US Not Destined for Recession20 June, 20:11 GMT,Despite all that, US President Joe Biden said earlier this week that Washington plans to support Ukraine for as long as necessary, thus refuting the allegations that some day the time when the well will dry up would not come.,'No Escape' While Situation 'Going to Get Worse',US investigative journalist Daniel Lazare told Sputnik that in the current global situation the biggest problem for Washington is that it "is colliding head-on with reality.","The Ukraine war is not going well, Russia is advancing steadily, and few more arms shipments are not going to make much of a difference," he explained. "The economy is in serious trouble, the sanctions that were supposed to bring Russia to its knees are backfiring spectacularly, while [US Treasury Secretary] Janet Yellen's scheme for putting a cap on Russian oil prices is being met with worldwide derision.",According to the pundit, the whole foreign policy of the US "seems to be heading for another crisis," which prompted the journalist to ponder whether that really is a "par for the course.","If confidence is plummeting, it's because no one thinks the Biden administration is the least bit competent," he said of the Biden administration's recent poll numbers. "Yet all the alternatives are so much worse. Pretty grim, isn't it?",Per Lazare, there is "no escape" out of the situation the US is currently in, and all Biden can do is smile uneasily while UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson jokes about showing off his pecs.,"Things are only going to get worse," he asserted.,'This Will Only End When There Is Real Political Revolution in US',Meanwhile, American geopolitical analyst Tom Luongo remarked that the ongoing conflict in the eastern European nation is nothing more than a "war between civilizations," in US neoconservatives' efforts to "forestall Russia taking control of Ukraine.",Touching on Washington officials' motives behind the ever-increasing aid to Kiev, Luongo told Sputnik that the American president, "as a proxy for the oligarchs in Davos, is acting on their behalf to ultimately weaken the US by sending weapons overseas and destroying US leadership and credibility.","This will only end when there is a real political revolution in the US," he argued.,Wall St. Driven to Worst First-Half in 50 Years by Recession Fears30 June, 18:57 GMT,Asked about why the Biden administration is concentrated so much on the crisis abroad rather than resolving issues at home, the analyst asserted that the president was "put in charge to destroy the US.","Biden and his administration are vandals," he claimed. "They are not acting in the US’s best interests but have subordinated our public policy to the wishes of foreign powers.",According to Luongo, "too many conservatives want to align the DNC with China, but it’s clear that while China is helping erode the political cohesiveness of the US it is Davos and their Climate Change/technocracy agenda that is pulling all the strings.",The expert offered that the incumbent administration is not interested in mitigating, for instance, the ongoing energy sector crisis, because it "is being run by traitors.",More to that, Luongo believes the US economy cannot afford to sponsor Washington's ambitions for long period of time. The analyst argued there is sincere and well-organized pushback coming from "the most unlikely place," which is some of the US biggest banks and the Federal Reserve, which is "aggressively tightening monetary policy to drain the world of dollars and break both the offshore euro, dollar markets and put China’s financial partners, namely Hong Kong, under sincere pressure.","If the Fed doesn’t do this now, the odds of a political disintegration of the US by the end of the decade rise dramatically," the expert suggested.,Washington's Ukraine Aid Spending May Affect US Economy, Experts Warn21 May, 13:38 GMT,Speculating about where the United States has again found huge funds to aid Ukraine this week, and how the budget is going to cover the next multi-million spending, he said that for 2022, the money used had already been allocated. However, according to Luongo, Congress eventually will have to sell debt into the market, either for domestic or foreign purchase, or for monetization by the Fed.,"The Fed is raising rates to stop the money spigot in DC by forcing Congress to act more responsibly," Luongo explained. "Think of these spending allocations and pledges, like the $600 billion for global infrastructure to thwart China’s Belt and Road Initiative as attempts at blackmailing a reluctant Fed to monetize debt the world no longer wants to buy.",The analyst also weighed in on the recent statement by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, which forecasted that the second quarter would see a 1% decline in the US GDP, a move that would in turn mark the beginning of recession.,Asked what were the chances of a "large-scale economic collapse" in this course of action, Luongo noted there is a significant difference between the recession and the latter. He emphasized the Fed should continue its current effort in order to compel resolution to numerous unresolved geopolitical challenges and imbalances.,"If it’s going to ‘act globally’ this is how it should do so, by taking away the punchbowl of offshore USD-based credit, Eurodollars, and regain control over its own monetary policy," he pointed out.,According to Luongo, to balance the books from the last inflationary boom, one must pay a price that may include a severe recession and economic disruption in the US economy for "a year or two.","I think the worst of those effects on the US economy will be blunted by the complete collapse of the European economy and sovereign debt markets," the expert concluded. "However, it won’t last forever, two maybe three years, but it will be enough time to effect real political change. We’ll know at this year’s midterm elections what the American people really think about these things.",Let Drivers Pay Price for World Domination, Says Biden,Meanwhile, just this Thursday, Biden told reporters that those behind the wheel in the US will be compelled to pay current record fuel prices for "as long as necessary.","As long as it takes so Russia cannot in fact defeat Ukraine and go beyond Ukraine," Biden said. "This is a critical position for the world.",A CNN report this week detailed that the US Department of Defense is considering 1,300 ideas from 800 companies to create new weaponry and commercial capabilities they might be able to produce to aid Ukraine in the near future.,The suggestions reportedly address several of the crucial needs that Ukraine has highlighted, including air defense, anti-armor, anti-tank, anti-personnel, coastal defense, drones, secure communications and counter battery.,Additionally, should the ongoing crisis last a long period, the US reportedly plans to increase the capability of its industrial base to serve Ukraine's demands.,Situation in UkraineEx-CIA Analyst: US Military Aid Not a Game Changer for Kiev, Ukraine Has Already Lost6 June, 16:31 GMT,Ever since the conflict began in late February, the US has provided Kiev with over $54 billion in financial and military aid, including $40 billion package for aid to Ukraine that was passed by Congress in May.,According to the estimates, with the newest $820 million tranche, the US has provided Ukraine with $7.6 billion in military aid since the Biden administration took office in January 2021.,Following a request for assistance from the republics of Donetsk and Lugansk to protect themselves against Ukrainian forces' escalating onslaught, Russia began a special military operation in Ukraine on February 24. According to the Russian Ministry of Defense statements, the civilian populace is not in risk because the operation is only focused on Ukrainian military facilities.。 7月20日，2026世界人工智能大会（WAIC 2026）的展馆里，有两个词到处可见：智能体和Token。

B | 不少展台演示着类似的场景：某个智能体如何替人完成一段工作，比如读财报、写代码、打开网页…… 然而，《IT时报》记者的一个困惑始终无法被解答：如何衡量这些智能体的价值？Token烧完之后，企业到底得到了什么？ “用Token收费，是大模型公司一种很‘狡猾’的做法，它不为自己的错误买单，你的钱还被花了。”2026世界人工智能大会期间，在容联云举办“协同进化·价值共生——企业级Agent的进化与商业化落地”的主题论坛上，亿欧董事长王彬坦言。容联云产研中心副总经理唐兴才引用的一组数据与之相印证：全球88%的企业已经部署了Agent，但其中不到10%的Agent真正为企业创造了可量化的业务价值。论坛上，从Token定价模式到效果付费，从技术指标到业务闭环，围绕“价值”重新校准的AI评价体系成为嘉宾热议的话题。当日，容联云宣布全栈产品Agent化，涵盖Voice Agent、质检Agent、辅助Agent、协呼Agent、CRM辅助Agent、智能客服Agent、私域运营Agent等完整产品矩阵，实现对企业营销、销售、服务、质检、运营全场景的纵深覆盖。 Token黑洞价值缺席现阶段的企业级Agent往往有一个核心矛盾：Token在加速消耗，价值却持续缺席。

C | 唐兴才描述了一个典型场景：企业引入AI编程工具后，如果不加以节制和规划使用，单个程序员的Token消耗成本可能是自身人力成本的10倍。许多企业初期以Token消耗量作为智能化程度的度量指标，直到财务报表出来，才发现成本膨胀与价值产出之间完全脱钩。在现有按Token消耗计费的模式下，AI服务方不承担产出质量风险，所有试错成本全部由企业端承担。在商业模式中，这是一个典型的错位：供给方按消耗收费，消耗越多赚得越多，却与使用方的价值无关，优化Token成本的动力显然不足。唐兴才也举例，一个语音Agent的意图识别准确率达到95%，但如果它无法推动订单转化、无法缩短工单了结时长、无法提升复购率，95%这个数字对企业经营者而言没有实际意义。 “关注业务闭环应关注的是业务指标，订单转化率、工单了结时长、运营覆盖人数与GMV贡献。

D | ”唐兴才指出。但目前来看，技术指标和业务指标之间是断层的，需要工程化能力和行业Know-how来建立桥梁。

E | 王彬将这一现象归结为评价体系的缺位。他提出VPT（Value Per Token）模型，主张以单位Token创造的商业产出来衡量AI的实际生产力，推动智能体从“Token消费者”向“价值生产者”跃迁。这一框架的核心逻辑是：Token的定价权不应掌握在算力提供方手中，而应由其对业务结果的实际贡献来决定。效果付费共担风险当评价体系从技术指标转向业务指标，收费模式的重构就成为必然。容联云解决方案中心总经理闫玉华在论坛圆桌环节透露，容联云今年正在探索一种新的业务模式——效果付费或成果付费，尤其涉及AI新技术和新场景，通过共担风险的方式化解客户的投入顾虑。

F | 效果付费的前提，是Agent能够在特定场景中实现业务闭环，产出可被量化的业务结果。今年6月，容联云发布了Voice Agent。数据显示，在银行信贷催收与营销场景中，日均通话超过2万通，完成率94%。

G | 以可比口径计算，人工坐席月成本为5000至8000元，日均处理话务150至300通；Voice Agent月成本2000至3000元，日均处理话务量1万通以上，而且24小时运转，服务标准统一。当Agent的产出可以精确到通话量、完成率、回款金额这些业务指标时，效果付费就具备了可操作性的商业模式。私域运营Agent则提供了另一个维度。一个人力运营人员管理几千到几万用户已是上限，而Agent可管理几十万乃至上百万用户，容联云的私域运营Agent已独立管理超8万私域客户，经营规模增长87%。

H | 在效果付费框架下，这一数字可以直接映射为GMV增量，成为定价的依据。多点数智副总裁张宇的定价逻辑也很清晰，他以海外一个大超市客户为例，生鲜年销售额三四十亿元，损耗率8%至9%，通过补货智能体，哪怕损耗率只降低1个百分点，一年就节省数千万元，AI系统的投入成本相比之下几乎可以忽略。如果Agent替代的是一个具体的岗位、承担的是一个具体的KPI，它的定价就不再取决于消耗了多少Token，而是取决于创造了多少可衡量的业务增量。

I | 企业级Agent的价值锚点企业级Agent的价值锚点究竟在哪里？根据容联云这几年的实践，唐兴才总结认为，数据连通、人机协同、业务闭环缺一不可。数据连通是价值锚点的地基。

J | 企业内部的Agent平台与CRM、ERP等业务系统长期割裂，Agent无法理解订单、合同、工单等业务对象的语义，也无法将作业过程中的知识与经验沉淀为可复用的资产。

K | 容联云的解法是在Agent与底层系统之间架设数据语义层，将业务数据抽象和实体化。业务闭环是价值锚点的度量刻度。唐兴才认为，企业级Agent有四个阶段的进化路径：单点能力（Copilot）、闭环任务、人机协作、自主业务闭环。前三个阶段，Agent的价值仍然依附于人的判断和执行；只有到第四阶段，Agent自主完成从订餐到信审的完整业务链路，其对业务结果的贡献才具备独立可量化的条件。容联云将全栈产品Agent化，本质上是寻找那些可以实现业务闭环的场景，将Agent的考核从技术指标体系切换到业务指标体系。行业Know-how是价值锚点的壁垒，多点数智在零售领域积累了10年的数字化底盘（Dmall OS）和智能中枢（D-BRAIN），因此，其Agent集群能够在选品、定价、补货、巡检等核心环节，输出可量化的经营结果。简而言之，企业级Agent的价值不在通用模型的参数规模，而在垂直行业知识与业务流程的深度融合。论坛上，嘉宾们形成的共识是，Agent 规模化核心突破口在于深度绑定企业客服、风控等核心业务，而技术幻觉、业务组织抵触是规模化两大核心壁垒。